Updated Draft Preview...

Alright, I already have done a huge 4 part NBA Draft preview, and have plans on doing a MASSIVE jogging diary on Thursday. But, my draft preview is no longer accurate, as player workouts have gone by and players have officially declared or undeclared for the draft. So I need to update my draft, but I'm not going to get into specifics like last time as that would take forever. What I will do is give quick reasons for any changes I've made, and give you my original posts: 1-10, 11-20, 21-30.
Here we go...

#1. Michael Beasley-Chicago Bulls: Just for the record, I love Derrick Rose and think he is going to be one of the best, and I'm not sold on Beasley being a star and team leader. That being said, Beasley fits the Bulls need SO much better than Rose does that I just can't see them passing on him. It just doesn't make sense to do that without a major roster adjustment.

#2. Derrick Rose-Miami Heat: Rose and Wade playing alongside each other equals nightmares for opposing teams for years.

#3. O.J. Mayo-Minnesota Timberwolves: I'm not sold on Mayo, but he is the best available player. The Wolves have a player just like him in Rashad McCants, but they don't have a very good front office and will likely just take the easy route in taking Mayo. The smart thing for them to do is trade the pick.

#4. Eric Gordon-Seattle Supersonics: Most draft projections don't have Gordon this high, but I love his shot and he is exactly what the Sonics need. Well, besides a big guy, but after Beasley there isn't a potential Hall of Fame big guy. I do think Gordon has that potential.

#5. Brook Lopez-Memphis Grizzlies: Lopez will be a huge bust, and the Grizzlies are a terrible organization. Perfect match.

#6. Danillo Gallinari- New York Knicks: The talk is D'Antoni doesn't like Gallinari. I doubt that is true. Gallinari is exactly what D'Antoni's system is all about, and they would be idiots not to take him.

#7. Jerryd Bayless-Los Angeles Clippers: Still not sold on this guy for the same reason as before...he couldn't lead his team anywhere at all at Arizona. He seems like the flavor of the month, and although he has the talent to back up the pick here, I don't see him panning out.

#8. Darrell Arthur-Milwaukee Bucks: They could take Joe Alexander here, but they have so many swingmen it just doesn't make sense. Arthur could be a very good player in the league at some point, and while he is also a swingman, he can play more down low which is what most of their current swingmen don't do.

#9. Kevin Love-Charlotte Bobcats: Here is my second change. I had DeAndre Jordan going here, but it seems the Bobcats like Love. Personally, I don't think he's the right choice because they have Sean May, and a frontcourt of May and Love is extremely unathletic. But as long as Okafor stays healthy and they don't have to play those two guys consistently together they may make it work.

#10. Kosta Koufos-New Jersey Nets: At this point the Nets don't need guards, which severly limits their options. Koufos is a big guy that doesn't play like it, but he has decent basketball skills and could develop into a decent pro.

#11. Russell Westbrook-Indiana Pacers: He goes here because the Pacers need a guard and Westbrook has been hyped big time recently. Personally, I love D.J. Augustin much, much, much more, but I'm not sure the Pacers feel the same way.

#12. D.J. Augustin-Sacramento Kings: If he falls this far, he will be one of my picks to go into my notebook, which essentially means instant success. I love his style of play, and his offensive game is amazing. If he can work on his defense he could be one of the top players in the league, even without that he will be a very good player.

#13. Joe Alexander-Portland Trail Blazers: I think this guy could be very good, and this is the perfect team for him to go to. This team is stacked for the future, and I really think he could be a main piece in that.

#14. Mario Chalmers-Golden State Warriors: I still love Ty Lawson here, but he dropped out, so the Warriors go with the next best thing in Chalmers.

#15. Brandon Rush-Phoenix Suns: If this Suns sell this pick like they have the last few I will be ripping into them hardcore. Rush is a very good player, and is ready to play now.

#16. Jason Thompson-Philadelphia 76ers: I don't know much about this guy, and he didn't even make the top 30 in my first previews, but I have since looked at his college numbers: 2o and 12 on 56% shooting.

#17. Roy Hibbert-Toronto Raptors: The Raptors need size, and while Hibbert doesn't really fit their style of play, he will go here because he's the best available true center.

#18. Anthony Randolph-Washington Wizards: Lots of talent, lots of questions. At this point, the Wizards are ok with taking the chance.

#19. Donte Green-Cleveland Cavaliers: This guy also has lots of talent, and should be able to provide a decent backup to Lebron and put in some good minutes at shooting guard. The Cavs need someone that can contribute now, and really there isn't anyone that is a guarantee, so they take the guy with the best talent that fits somewhat of a need.

#20. Robin Lopez-Denver Nuggets: As an Allen Iverson fan I really hope they don't take Lopez, but he fits a need. He will at least provide defense and intensity, even if it is coming from a very untalented player.

#21. J.J. Hickson-New Jersey Nets: Good down low player, and the Nets need guys just like that.

#22. Chris Douglas-Roberts-Orlando Magic: The Magic need guards, both at the point and at the two guard. They can deal however with Jameer Nelson, and getting Roberts here will help fill the void at the two, especially considering the team and J.J. Redick aren't on the best of terms.

#23. JaVale McGee-Utah Jazz: This is a toss up between McGee and Mareese Speights, but McGee seems to fit better in the pick and roll, which is essential for the Jazz.

#24. Mareese Speights-Seattle Supersonics: This is a very big man, and he could be Elton Brand like if he can just develop a better work ethic. Brand's work ethic is unbelievable though, so more than likely Speights never lives up to his potential.

#25. Bill Walker-Houston Rockets: Walker is a hell of a player, and to get him this late is a good steal. He can provide more offense than Battier at the three, and can also supplant T-Mac to keep him fresh and to take his place during his inevitable injury.

#26. Ante Tomic-San Antonio Spurs: The Spurs always take players without egos, and normally international ones at that. While their system worked in the past, I think it ended over the last few years. I don't think Tomic ever amounts to much, but the Spurs take him because he doesn't disrupt their system.

#27. DeAndre Jordan-New Orleans Hornets: This guy has plenty of upside, and will at least provide a decent big man off the bench to help keep David West healthy.

#28. Alexis Ajinca-Memphis Grizzlies: This guy could be really good down the road, and the Grizzlies are in no hurry. He'll stay overseas and develop for the future.

#29. DeVon Hardin-Detroit Pistons: I sincerely doubt the Pistons keep this pick, so there isn't really a need to analyze it.

#30. Nicolas Batum-Boston Celtics: I don't think they see anyone available that they are willing to open a roster spot for, so they take a supremely talented player for the future and let him stay overseas.

If you want better, more in depth analysis go to the links I posted at the beginning, this just provides a more accurate blue print of how I think the draft should and will go. Stay tuned for Thursday, not only will I do a jogging diary but I'll also be fielding questions in the White Hat Chat at the bottom of the page.

~Aaron Jackson

First Annual NBA Draft Part 3

Alright, so this one has been a long time coming, but with the amount of work I've been putting in I haven't had time to continue such an in depth thread, so I decided to just write nothing. The good news is this is the last part of the preview, and after this I can write smaller posts that require significantly less research. This last section particularly is difficult, because it is where foreign players start to get picked by contenders. That means two things...I have no clue who some of these guys are, because unfortunately I don't have foreign scouts to go by, and I can't fly out to watch them. Obviously. The second problem is that you never really know what contenders are thinking. They could be looking for a polished foreign player to play right away, or they could be happy with their current roster and pick an unpolished guy that will stay foreign for a few years to develop. I will still project the picks, but for some of these foreign guys I can't provide much of my own analysis, I can only rehash what other people have written. While I don't mind doing that some, expect the analysis of those players to be much less in depth. Here we go...

21. New Jersey-Kosta Koufos: This pick is from Dallas, and I think they stick with picking for need and take Koufos here for the same reasons I had them taking Darrell Arthur earlier.

22. Orlando Magic-Chris Douglas Roberts: The biggest hole for this team is the two guard slots, and I consider this a toss up between Roberts and Mario Chalmers from Kansas. I give Roberts the edge only because I think they can live with Jameer Nelson, but their shooting guard slot really needs help, and Roberts certainly provides that. This pick really comes down to how much they have J.J. Reddick in their plans, and it seems like he isn't on the best of terms with the team.

23. Utah Jazz-Nicolas Batum: I don't know much about this guy, other than most people seem to think he can do just about anything on the basketball court. With Andrei Kirilenko being so hit or miss now, it seems like time to find someone to potentially help at the forward position, and certainly Batum could provide that.

24. Seattle Supersonics-Serge Ibaka: The GM of the Sonics comes from the Spurs, and while I think they could use a guard here, they may very well take Ibaka and let him develop overseas. The only guard left worth taking at this point is Mario Chalmers, and they already have him in Earl Watson. They know they are a year or two away from competing, so they will be more than happy to wait for a guy with lots of potential.

25. Houston Rockets-Bill Walker: This is the other guy from Kansas State that has a lot of talent. He didn't get much publicity because of the fact that he played alongside Michael Beasley, but I think he can definitely be a good pro. He can provide more offense when needed over Shane Battier, and can play in place of McGrady when he has his inevitable injury.

26. San Antonio Spurs-Robin Lopez: Unfortunately for the Spurs, I think their run is over. They have become obsessed with only acquiring players they think fit their system mentally, and while it worked for a while, the type of player they want just doesn't work in the NBA anymore. They probably take Lopez here because he's a big body with a very small ego that doesn't need the ball, but I don't think he ever amounts to anything.

27. New Orleans Hornets-J.J. Hickson: This guy has plenty of potential, and will provide a talented player to come in and play when David West needs a rest. They need big bodies and he certainly provides one, and is a good value late in the draft.

28. Memphis Grizzlies-DeVon Hardin: Another big guy with tons of potential, which is what the Grizzlies need. They know they aren't going to contend for awhile, and Hardin probably won't be a regular contributor for awhile either. He is a good pick for the future.

29. Detroit Piston-Mario Chalmers: I fully expect a big trade from the Pistons, and it could very well be the rumored deal with the Nuggets. That would mean they would trade off Rasheed Wallace, Tayshaun Prince, Chauncey Billups and this pick for Carmelo Anthony, Marcus Camby, Kenyon Martin and Chucky Atkins. If the Nuggets pick here they will definitely take Chalmers, and if the Pistons keep the pick and don't make that deal they still may take Chalmers as a back up guard to go with Rodney Stuckey.

30. Boston Celtics-Alexis Ajinca: The only thing I know about this guy is that he is foreign and would absolutely not be playing this coming year in the league. That's fine with the soon to be defending NBA champions, who don't need someone to play right now unless it's a point guard, and unless Chalmers falls to here they won't find that.

On a personal note, I fully expect that both Danny Green and Wayne Ellington will not stay in the draft, and will play at UNC another year. Lawson may or may not go, it depends on what he is hearing from teams. Regardless, the Heels have one of the best incoming freshmen classes, and keeping around those two and Hansbrough should propel the to the top this coming season.

~Aaron Jackson